Analyzing the Union Budget 2025 with Neelesh Surana | Market Impact & Tax Slab Changes for 2025

Neelesh:  Yeh budget kaafi pragmatic aur well-balanced raha hai.
Income tax mein bahut badi rahat di gayi hai.
FY31 mein jo debt-to-GDP hai, woh reduce ho kar 50% par aa jayega.
Aaj ki tareekh mein directly hum budget ko foreign flows se link nahi kar sakte.
There was a need of R to address current challenges of cyclical sort of slowdown aur jo globally ho raha hai usse.
Do you think capital expenditure growth story ab khatam hone ja rahi hai?
Right observation — ab kaafi talks ho rahi hain ki capital capex low hai.

Shiv: Budget ke baad kaun se sectors winners honge,
aur kin sectors se abhi door rehna behtar hoga?

Shiv: Hello and welcome to Bazaar & Beyond – your premier podcast for in-depth analysis of markets, investments, and economic developments. Main hoon aapka host Shiv Narayanan. Aaj hum discuss karne wale hain Budget 2025 – iska impact sirf government policies tak limited nahi hai, balki markets, investments aur aapki personal finance tak bhi direct effect karta hai.

Shiv: Kya Budget 2025 short-term relief dega ya long-term growth ka ek naya roadmap tay karega? In sabhi questions ko address karne ke liye hamare saath hain Mr. Neelesh Surana, CIO at Mirae Asset Investment Managers India – ek seasoned expert in equity markets and portfolio management.

Shiv: Welcome, Neelesh sir.

Neelesh: Thank you, it’s my pleasure.

Shiv: Mera pehla sawaal – aapke opinion mein Union Budget 2025 ke biggest hits aur misses kya the?

Neelesh: Dekhiye, do important context the jisme ye budget present hua. Pehla, Indian economy mein cyclical slowdown tha – not structural. Jaise Q2 GDP number 5.4% aaya tha, jo humari potential growth se 1% neeche tha. Corporates ke results bhi weak the. Dusra backdrop tha global – China slowdown aur US mein regime change. Dono wajah se anxiety thi. Is context mein yeh budget pragmatic, well-balanced aur thoughtful tha. Do pehlu the: growth wapas lana aur fiscal prudence maintain karna.

Shiv: Kya highlights rahi fiscal deficit ko lekar?

Neelesh: Fiscal deficit FY26 ke liye 4% ka project hua hai. Budget ka credibility model kaafi consistent aur conservative raha hai. Revenue deficit kam hua hai, jo quality of deficit ko improve karta hai. COVID ke time pe revenue deficit 70–80% tak chala gaya tha, lekin ab 33% aa gaya hai. Yeh quality improve hui hai.

Shiv: Toh kya is fiscal discipline ka impact India ki credit rating aur foreign flows pe padega?

Neelesh: Haan, rating agencies debt-to-GDP aur fiscal deficit ko closely dekhte hain. Abhi India ka debt-to-GDP 57% hai, FY31 tak 50% laane ka glide path diya gaya hai. Yeh discipline se rating upgrade bhi ho sakta hai, jo currency aur FII flows dono ke liye positive ho sakta hai – lekin short term mein direct link budget aur foreign flows ka utna strong nahi hai.

Shiv: Is baar ke tax breaks par aapke kya thoughts hain?

Neelesh: Government ne income tax mein significant relief diya hai – 1 lakh crore ka. Yeh targeted hai salaried urban class ke liye. Ab ₹12.75 lakh tak salary earn karne wale ko virtually zero tax dena padega. Yeh move consumption aur sentiment dono ko boost karega.

Shiv: Kya is se stock market volumes ya retail loans pe koi impact padega?

Neelesh: Average jo 10–25 lakh kamate hain, unke paas ₹50–80k ki saving hogi. Ab wo saving kis mein jaye – SIPs, consumer spending, ya loans – yeh predict karna mushkil hai. Lekin overall spending discretionary side pe badhne ki sambhavana hai – autos, consumer durables, leisure, travel, etc.

Shiv: India ki long-term growth story mein yeh budget kya role play karta hai?

Neelesh: India ki macro foundation strong hai – fiscal discipline aur capex spending dono continue ho rahe hain. Govt ka capital expenditure 8 saal mein 6 lakh crore se 20 lakh crore tak gaya hai. Ab budget focus kar raha hai consumption push pe – yeh continuity aur need-of-the-hour dono address karta hai.

Shiv: Kya capital expenditure growth story khatam ho rahi hai?

Neelesh: Nahin. Capex abhi bhi nominal GDP ke pace pe grow kar raha hai – 10%. Execution challenges hote hain, lekin spending maintain hui hai. Centre, states, PSUs aur private sector – sabka role hai. Correction in capital goods stocks was due to high expectation, but capex focus abhi bhi intact hai.

Shiv: Market outlook kya hai agle kuch mahino ke liye?

Neelesh: Global uncertainty aur FIIs ki selling ke chalte market 12–15% correct hua hai. Lekin ab valuations reasonable ho gaye hain – PE multiple FY27 ke liye 17 ke neeche aa gaya hai. Budget ne cyclical slowdown ko address kiya hai. So, long-term view positive hai – bas expectations realistic rakhni chahiye (12–15% return over 3–5 years).

Shiv: Budget ke baad kaunse sectors winners honge aur kin sectors se door rehna chahiye?

Neelesh: Positive view hai large banks pe (FII selling ke baad valuations attractive ho gaye hain), consumer discretionary (urban mass consumption ab pick up karega), aur manufacturing (healthcare, pharma, specialty chemicals). Avoid karna chahiye wo sectors jahan valuation frothy hai – EMS, certain industrials jahan tez run-up hua hai.

Shiv: Retail investors ko volatile market mein kya strategy apnani chahiye?

Neelesh: Sabse important hai asset allocation ka discipline. Time horizon 3–5 years ka hona chahiye. SIPs aur hybrid funds achha option hain. Balanced approach se invest karenge toh short-term volatility ka impact kam hoga.

Shiv: Budget ka impact fixed income, real estate aur gold pe?

Neelesh: Interest rate 25–50 bps tak soft ho sakta hai – good for debt funds. Gold complex hai, but volatile global environment mein supportive ho sakta hai. Multi-asset funds jo equity, debt aur gold teeno mein invest karte hain – unmein exposure lena sensible hoga.

Shiv: Neelesh sir, a huge thank you for joining us and decoding the Budget 2025 takeaways. 

Shiv: Doston, agar aapko yeh conversation valuable lagi, toh subscribe zaroor karein to *Bazaar & Beyond* for more such expert insights. Main hoon Shiv Narayanan – signing off. Stay informed, stay invested. Happy investing! 

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