Investment strategies from Dr. Mayank Joshipura’s

Aur mera jo study ka result dono split aur stock dividend ya bonus ka hai usme koi long term genuine itna returns usse nahin milta. So humne ek chhota framework jaisa banaya hai ki har sasta stock turn around story nahin hai. Hum eventually aap dekho worst of the times hai vo actually best times rahe hain investment ke liye. Trade mein agar aapka 55–45 ka strike rate hai na to bhi aap paise banao. Profit book karna is a natural tendency. Loss book karna is like a personal defeat. Aap mujhe genuinely poochoge to main to kahunga ki retail investor ko SME IPO mein dekhna bhi nahin chahiye. Suppose aap value investor ho. Aapko saste mein se accha nikalna hai. Sasta hai par accha hai. To P/E aap dekhoge kam hona chahiye. Uske saath mein kya hona chahiye? Kyunki sasta hai to junk bhi ho sakta hai na. To ek bahut accha score hai Piotroski’s F-score. Vo nine simple ratios use karta hai.

Vivek (Host): 
Hello everyone and welcome to another episode of Bazaar & Beyond where we deep-dive into the world of finance, investing and more to help you make smart investment decisions aur main hoon aapka host Vivek Anant. Aaj ke episode mein we have a special guest from academia—Dr. Mayank Joshipura. He completed his PhD in 2005, and is currently the Vice Dean of Research and PhD Program and Professor of Finance at School of Business Management, NMIMS University, Mumbai. Dr. Joshipura has 2 and half decades of experience in management education and consulting. Before NMIMS, he worked with SP Jain Institute of Management and Research where he was Head of Finance. Thank you Dr. Joshipura for joining us for this conversation. 

Vivek: 
So main na shuruaat thoda alag tareeke se karna chaahunga. Aap academic background se hain to we would like to know—our viewers would also like to know—how has the MBA Finance degree changed over the years considering aap 2005 mein aapne MBA khatam kiya tha. Ab se aap yahan tak, now that you are leading that PhD program in NMIMS? How have you seen it changed drastically aur has been that many changes? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Haan, so bahut saari cheezen change hui hain. Just maine 2005 mein PhD khatam kiya tha. Mera MBA to ’99 ka hai. To main 26 saal se I am teaching MBA. To bahut saari cheezen change ho gayi—almost quarter century ho gayi. I mean bade-bade changes agar dekhen ki aaj kya hua? To ek information advantage has given away to analytics. Matlab pehle tha ki aapke paas superior information hai, to abhi to information sab sabke paas almost same time pe aati hai, to vo ek—to analytics bahut important ho gaya. Koi bhi form mein aapko programming nahin aata hai, coding—vo alag baat hai, par kaunse tools use kar rahe hain vo. Doosra, business models change ho gaye. Ek to 2008–09 ka jo financial crisis hua uski vajah se credit risk aur vo jo pehle itna prominent nahin tha finance mein, to thoda quant ka orientation badh gaya, kyunki risk has become central to CFO’s role also, kyunki vo itna matlab jo hua… 

Dr. Mayank (contd.): 
Aur phir 2015 ke aas-paas ek to vo—we became sensitive about climate change and issues and all. To abhi aaj ke annual reports dekho—bahut saari cheezen, jo carbon emission kitna hua—jo pehle kabhi… To now sustainable finance jo ek hai. And business models poore change ho gaye—matlab aap dekho vo digital business models as we say, fintech—to agar aap vo tech aur finance ki jo boundaries thi vo chali gayi. To matlab mera aisa maanna hai ki forensic accounting aur vo hai, par finance has moved closer to business strategy and quant kyunki bahut saari cheezen— even aap investment world mein dekho—abhi hum quantitative investment strategies ki baat kar rahe hain. Bahut saare funds launch ho rahe hain. Aur kuch roles aage jaake bahut aur change ho gaye. Kyunki jaise AI aa gaya to AI—you can’t just avoid it. It’s like you have to see ki kaise usko leverage karna hai. To kuch jo elementary skills thi—jaise vo basic analysis, company profile—kind of—vo lagta hai ki vo skills aage jaake it may not help you. To aapko hamesha ek step aage rehna hai. That is what we are trying to do. To kaafi saare changes ho gaye hain. To 25 saal pehle kisine agar MBA kiya hai to aaj to phir se poora learn karna padega. To poora badal gaya aaj kuch. 

Vivek: 
So in a lot of people who do MBA Finance, they also go into the investment analysis, investment management space also. We have seen a lot of leaders coming up. 

Vivek: 
Yeah. So, when they are looking to hire folks from say an MMBA Finance course, someone who’s completed that, what are they looking for? I mean how—what are you training your students for? 

Dr. Mayank: 
So, basically do tarah ke of course roles hain. Ek to aapko basic models aane chahiye. For instance itna saara disruption ho raha hai, par finance itna nahin badla hai. Abhi aap market mein bhi option prices aur sab dekh lo. To Black–Scholes model abhi bhi vahi hai. Matlab itna zyada koi changes hue nahin hain. To “the way things are done” vo badal gaya poora. To abhi maan lo I am looking at someone, to basic kuch skills honi chahiye—ki bhai sirf valuation principles nahin—sahi mein koi banda valuation kar sakta hai. Jaise startup ka valuation bilkul alag hai—jahan vo public information available nahin hai—to vo kaise karoge? Koi turn around story hai to? To basic valuation models aane chahiye. Ek industry ka business model—matlab mujhe end-to-end, kyunki regulations bahut important hain—to vo kya factors affect karte hain industry ke, geopolitics itna important ho gaya. To ek economic poora sense—microeconomics, basic valuation models aur jo risk models hain vo—and then of course attention to detail and how you present it. But ye zyada matlab kis tarah se—how you deal with qualitative and quantitative information aur usko aap kaise decision making ke liye use karte ho—ye sabse important hai. 

Vivek: 
I want to change track here a little bit—get into the how people perceive events in the market. So, koi-koi stocks mein jo corporate actions hote hain—stock splits hote hain, bonus hote hain. Aapne iske baare mein study kiya hai. You have written a paper also on this. What I would like you to share—the insights that you had with our viewers—in terms of what are the pitfalls that people fall prey to when they are trying to trade that say corporate action event? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Ab usmein do cheezen hain. Like corporate action bahut saare tareeke se jaisa aapne bataya—dividend hai ya stock split hai ya bonus ya stock dividend hai, kuch hai mergers announcement vagaira jahan sahi mein koi substantial change ho raha hai. Ab ye jo basic corporate action hai stock split for instance ab aap company ka balance sheet ya kuch bhi dekho to basically kuch farq nahin padega. ₹10 ka ek share hai, uske jagah ₹1 ke 10 shares ho jaayenge. To price seedhi 1/10 ho jaani chahiye. Ek zamaane mein uska kaafi significance tha, kyunki vo market lot hote the aur log apne hisaab se trade karenge to 100 shares kharidna difficult hai. To ek trading range mein laane ke liye agar stock price bahut badh gayi hai to aap usko kam karenge affordability badh jaayegi. Abhi to hum is zamaane mein ki ₹1 ka matlab ek share bhi kharid sakte hain. Aur aage jaake we will have fractional shares also. So even if the ticket size bahut zyada hai—ki ₹x00 ka share main nahin kharid sakta—vo bhi rehne wala nahin hai. To ek zamaane mein uska genuine significance tha. Abhi jaake koi basic change nahin ho raha hai company ke performance mein. Ek hai—thoda attention milega. Aur agar bahut bada ticket size hai ek share se kam aap nahin kharid sakte aapka limited hai—to thoda liquidity badhega. Kuch log jo pehle sochte the ki main isko ek unit kharidoonga to mera poora fund khatam ho jaayega—vo thoda impact hota hai. Par mera jo study ka result—dono split aur stock dividend ya bonus ka—hai, usmein koi long-term genuine itna returns usse nahin milta hai. To aap usko aise mat socho ki vo aapko koi return earn karne ki opportunity hai. Aapko sahi mein lagta hai ki company bahut acchi hai aur aap pehle nahin kharid paate the kyunki price ₹40,000 thi ab ₹400 hai because of split—that gives you an opportunity to buy. But that should not be the reason ki haan split hua isliye chalo kharid lete hain—kuch extra return milega. 

Vivek: 
Aapko nahin lagta ki suddenly because of that corporate action event vo liquidity before the ex-date badh jaati hai, and then uske baad it just completely vo thamm jaata hai ekdum? 

Dr. Mayank: 
If you actually think about so aise hi hona chahiye na. Koi bhi news hai to ek market mein hum market efficiency ki baat karte hain. Ab koi bhi news aati hai usmein do tarah ke dates hain corporate action mein announcement day and effective day—ab jo ex-date karte hain to announcement to pehle ho gaya hai. Agar mujhe lagta hai ki ye kaam ki information hai maan lo koi merger ka announce ho gaya, management ho gaya ya CEO change ka ya kuch bhi hai to jinke paas information fast process karne ki capability hai aur unko lagta hai ki ye kaam ki information hai vo to poora capital use karke uska advantage lene ka try karenge na. Jo-jo price mein adjustment hona hai vo to—it happens around that announcement day. Effective date is just that adjustment. Only one corporate action jismein not a corporate action as such announcement jo index changes hote hain, reconstitution—vahan because index funds have tracking error ka problem, to vo announcement se usko change nahin karte. Jab sahi mein when that change may happen on that effective day tab they will try to re-jig their portfolio. To vahan you will see some movement around the effective date and you know the implementation date. Baaki most changes ka reaction should come around announcement only, because once I process it, I want to exploit it. 

Vivek: 
Correct. Why do you think that retail investors are not able to—like they still try to trade in these counters ye corporate action hone ke baad bhi—I mean what do you think is a limiting factor? 

Dr. Mayank: 
So ek to bahut simple hai matlab bonus mein to thoda married bhi hai ek vo famous 21st decade ki movie Guru thi—“ek ke saath ek free hai” to we all like free. To jab bonus aata hai to humein lagta hai ki kuch extra mil raha hai. Doosra, yeh bhi hai ki company ne profit kiya—they can’t pay (cash) kyunki reinvestment ki opportunity hai. To vo keh rahe hain ki hum aapko profit ko capitalize karke aapko uske samne shares de rahe hain. To in a way vo thoda married bhi hai usmein. To problem yeh hai ki agar hum sochte hain ki uski vajah se koi company ke performance mein bahut bada change ho raha hai—ya nahin ho raha hai. Na to ROE change hoga, na to Debt-Equity change hoga kuch nahin hoga. Par if at all someone thinks ki haan yeh koi kaam ki cheez hai aur usse paise ban sakte hain vo at least yeh basic corporate actions mein nahin hoga. 

Dr. Mayank (contd.): 
Mujhe lagta hai ki retail investor ke liye ek challenge yeh hai ki maan lo 4–5,000 stocks listed hain. Ab mera attention kaise jaayega—kis pe kharidna hai? To yeh jo announcements hain—corporate actions—vo “attention grabbing hypothesis” kehte hain—ki mera first time dhyaan gaya ki bhai chalo yeh kuch announcement hua to ismein kuch kaam ki cheezon ki to invest karte hain. To extraordinary returns ke liye nahin karna chahiye. But vo hai ki agar company ka profit hai tabhi vo bonus announce karenge aur kuch hai to people may invest into it. Par humse better information processing aur speed wale log— options trading mein speed of information processing aur systems— role play karte hain. Aap sabse end mein information ko respond karoge to fayda nahin hoga. 

Vivek: 
Correct especially for DIY investors. Ab low-volatility vs high-volatility stocks par aaiye. Log sochte hain higher risk loge to high return milta hai—par zaroori nahin. Aapne is phenomenon ko study kiya hai—insights? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Bahut interesting. Do tarah ke investors institutional informed jinko pata hota hai, aur individuals mere jaise. Hum sab mein lottery preference hoti hai. Mathematician lottery nahin kharidega—kyunki operator ko hi paisa milta hai. Calculation karo—expected value negative. Par “apna time aayega” wali mentality rehti hai. Penny stocks isi liye—₹2, ₹5, 30 paise— “kitna loss hoga”—par max loss 100% hi hota hai chahe ₹5 ho ya ₹5000. Miracle/turnaround ki hope rehti hai. Isliye high-risk stocks ki demand badh jaati hai aur jaise lottery, waise hi zyada logon ko loss hota hai. 

Dr. Mayank (contd.): 
Institutional investors bhi constraints ke under comp structures (e.g., 12% ke upar profit sharing) ki wajah se swings/volatility chahte hain. Classroom mein sikhate hain: beta kam, alpha positive—accha. Par investor “alpha” ko market se kitna upar return samajhta hai, risk-adjusted nahin. To natural preference high risk ki taraf chali jaati hai. Par jo over-demanded/over-expensive hota hai vo aage chalkar kam return deta hai. Low-risk strategy ka summary: “winning by losing less.” Market +10% hua to aap +8%; market −10% hua to aap −6%. Cycle ke baad aap aage rehte ho par patience chahiye. Achhi baat: India mein ETFs/indices sab milte hain. Kam risk leke bhi zyada return possible; high risk lene se kai baar kam return milta hai. 

Vivek: 
Momentum vs contrarian buckets log khud ko in labels mein daal lete hain. Penny stock examples, conglomerate ke troubled arms, promoters revive karne ki koshish… Retail kaise trap se bache? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Framework: “Har sasta stock turnaround story nahin.” Bahut kam cheap stocks actually turn around karte hain; zyada tar die down. Momentum is a proven strategy emotion-free ride the trend. Contrarian tough hai— LinkedIn pe sab “value investor”— Buffett ka “buy in thunderstorms, sell in blue skies”—par unko thunderstorm dikhta hai, humein blue sky. COVID crash mein bhi— market level invest karna hi mushkil, stock level aur tough. 

Dr. Mayank (contd.): 
Simple test: turnaround tabhi hoga jab EBITDA > interest obligations. Agar interest cost 2000 cr, EBITDA 1000 cr—loss badhega—turnaround nahin. “Asset sale” stories crown jewels hi bikte hain; EBITDA aur ghatega; debt thoda pay ho jaayega, par gap badhta jaayega. Evidence-based investing: interest cover improve ho, losses QoQ/YoY kum ho. Warnaa story hi hogi. DIY ho to “stay away from fire.” Agar belief hai to pehle some evidence dekh lo. 

Vivek: 
Crisis investing COVID, wars, sanctions (EU petroleum), India global linkages. Retail ko kaise sochna chahiye? 

Dr. Mayank: 
“Circle of competence.” Kya main tariff war, geopolitics analyze kar sakta hoon? Portfolio ko cricket/football team ki tarah banao—diversification & asset allocation. War/tension safe havens (e.g., gold via ETFs). Apna risk profile set karke strategic asset allocation pe stick karo. Sector views ho to basket approach; expert na ho to broad allocation. Elections, cycles aate rahenge— strong team banao. Worst times often best entry—agar war se sab destroy ho gaya to investments ka fayda hi nahin; agar normalize hua to good returns. 2008/2020 examples. Regular earn–save–invest; extremes avoid karo. 

Vivek: 
News-flow, volumes, “jumping in” corporate action discussion ka corollary— log phans jaate hain. Trade vs invest—layman ko kaise guide karein? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Traders ke liye news crucial (short-term view). Volume simple signal: more people same direction. Price↑ & Volume↑ = strong trend. Problem: kab plunge lo? Jab tak story public hoti hai, price chal chuki hoti hai— late reaction se phans sakte ho. 2017–18 mein likha: do types— momentum traders (emotionless; stop-loss hit—exit), aur pure value bargain hunters (sab negative hone par enter). Dono paisa bana sakte. “Buy on dips” log (mere jaise) aksar 100→300 miss karke 250 pe kharidte, 200 tak average— capital khatam stock zaroori nahin upar aaye hum momentum walon ko exit route de dete. Not core-contrarian, not pure-momentum isiliye phans te hain. 

Dr. Mayank (contd.): 
Volume trend continue ho aur volume girne lage— weak reversal ka sign (trader view). Investor view: price upar jaana ho to volume ana chahiye; par sectors consensus se discard hote-hote wapas bhi aate (auto, pharma/CDMO). Consensus se bachna; basket sense. Fund manager pe trust nahin? ETFs. Trader ho to stop-loss zaroori; 55–45 strike rate pe bhi paisa banta hai. “Disposition effect”: small profits jaldi book, losses bada— professionals ko bhi. Discipline: profit-taking mein lazy, loss pe hard stop— major issues se bachate ho. 

Vivek: 
AI-based advisory US largest bank ne AI desk start ki log sochte the AI se jobs jayengi. Aap students/retail ko kya bolte ho? 

Dr. Mayank: 
AI naya nahin 2008 ke baad robo-advisory. Trust deficit, AUA 1% model, $1mn thresholds log low-cost, objective, automated advisory chahte. Back-end risk profiling → automated allocation personal finance side automate ho gayi. Active portfolio mein sector/trend AI ka advantage: “dumb but objective” human biases nahin. Templates ke saath sell-side research kaafi automate. Experts chahiye models ko fine-tune/improve karne. Market se ladna nahin 2020 recovery “false” kehkar miss ki— implementation objective hona chahiye. Blend of AI + human expertise personalized, fast, low-cost— more investors onboard. 

Vivek: 
SME IPOs murmurs/news. Retail ko kya dekhna chahiye ideas/frameworks? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Sirf SME nahin  har IPO initial fuzz. Listed companies ke mukable kam information; SME mein aur kam. Main kahunga retail investor SME IPO “dekhna bhi nahin chahiye.” Agar karna hai ticket size chhota rakho. Basics: over-leverage nahin; OFS se promoters exit to aap kisi ke exit route mat bano; hype ≠ performance; profitability visible? Doctor jaise health checks— profitability, debt, exiting big investors? Litigations? Red flags to skip. IPOs ke baad hi wealth bani (Amazon/Google/Infosys/TCS/Netflix). FOMO hot/cold markets hote rehte. Aggressive pricing + oversubscription → disappointment → long absence. Sab investors ko yeh problem— history se na seekhne wali baat— self-correcting mechanism. Disclosures pehle se better. 

Vivek (aside to viewers): 
(Names nahin lete, par jin 2 companies ka reference tha, vo abhi tak IPO issue price cross nahin kar paayi.) 

Vivek: 
Tokenization brokers abroad try kar rahe US movement. Log crypto samajh lete—par yeh financial assets/shares ke liye alag. Robinhood example kya ho raha hai? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Fractional ownership concept. Blockchain & tokenization equity/capital markets transform kar sakte. NFTs (non-fungible) digital/virtual unique ownership; blockchain ka fayda secure & transparent chain of title. Smart contracts— customized clauses (dividend/growth). Physical assets/art ko digital/virtual proof ke saath co-own. India mein T+0 ke kareeb, par intermediaries, tech glitches new infra chahiye. Alternate assets me pehle aayega transparent, real-time settlement. Crypto (fungible) se confuse mat karo; NFT unique ownership. Stock split ki zarurat hi nahin fractional ownership se proportionate buy. Robinhood fractional allow karta, par system ke bahar trade mushkil. India Companies Act fractional allow nahin; SEBI push kar raha; GIFT City/international exchanges pe foreign stocks fractional possible. Aage: real-time, on-the-spot settlements; par legacy infra ke chalte time lagega. Land records/property digital PDFs ≠ full digitization transparency/speed scope bada. Fraction of rupee se investable basket badhega. 

Vivek: 
ESG/green governance, tangible issues (carbon/fines/green tech). Kya focus ho? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Governance accha ho to E & S par bhi genuine focus aata. “Sustainability” mentions ≠ reality— numbers vs story align hon. Fashion ke liye ESG nahin  business model mein real improvement climate risk genuine hai green models pe focus zaroori. 

Vivek: 
Popular metrics P/E, interest coverage (EBITDA should cover interest). High P/E “future priced-in,” flows se inflate— industry median P/E ka concept dilute. New-age companies kaunse metrics dekhein? 

Dr. Mayank: 
P/E absolute itna relevant nahin “kya hona chahiye” important. Example: Netflix P/E ~243 (2005–06) se 10 saal mein ~30x; Walmart P/E ~18 se ~30% in 10 yrs. Value investor: “sasta par accha” low P/E ke saath quality screens chahiye. Piotroski’s F-score (9 ratios): profitability signals, leverage/liquidity/financing quality, operating efficiency & asset turnover. “Sasta + high F-score” = likely value; “sasta + F-score 2–3” = junk. G-score (growth): sab expensive growth nahin sustainable kaun? Profitable, reinvesting growth. Dono ko combo mein lagao— sirf industry average/10-year ratio pe mat ruko competitive/performance context badal chuka hota hai. Public platforms pe F-score/G-score readily milte. Do cheezen avoid: default risk & accounting manipulation (capital loss risk). “Mehenga but deserving” vs “mehenga fad” G-score help karta. 

Vivek: 
Just repeat those two scores? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Piotroski (F-score) aur G-score (growth). India mein PMS bhi use karte. G-score 8-point— expensive-only vs expensive-but-deserving segregate karne mein madad. 

Vivek: 
Before we close recommendations books/shows that can change perspective? 

Dr. Mayank: 
Peter Lynch One Up on Wall Street, Beating the Street. Phil Fisher Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. Mohnish PabraiDhandho Investor. Robert Shiller Irrational Exuberance. Columbia (Ben Graham lineage) Value Investing (Bruce Green). Wes Gray (Alpha Architect) Quantitative Value Investing aur Momentum Investing. Low-vol investing par Robeco wali Low-Volatility Investing. Padhne se samajh aata hai kaise apni money manage karni hai aur world of investment kaise kaam karta hai. 

Vivek (Closing): 
To yeh tha Bazaar & Beyond ka aaj ka episode. I hope ki aapko yeh episode pasand aaya. Kabhi-kabhi Bazaar ke beyond jaake hum koshish karenge ki aapko market ke peeche ki kahaniyaan ya thode alag insights ya nazariya bhi sunne ko mile. Dr. Joshipura ke academic perspective se humne kaafi real-world scenarios ko dekhne ki koshish ki. Agar aapko yeh episode pasand aaya to video ko like karein aur apne doston ke saath zaroor share karein. Aise hi aur interesting conversations ke liye m.Stock ke YouTube channel ko zaroor subscribe karein. Investments and securities markets are subject to market risk. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.