Retail Investors, Market Cycles & The Future of Value Investing

Ek common mistake hota hai ki log apna jo risk appetite hota hai na aur investment horizon, usko assess nahi kar paate hain. 
Earnings forecast isn’t everything but multiple forecasts also matter equally. So main bolunga ki aap 50% mutual fund me rakhiye aur 50% AIF me rakhiye. Kabhi-kabhi hume short karke paisa banana bhi seekhna chahiye. Easy phase of the bull run is over. Hum log bull run me hain, yes but ye difficult phase hai bull run ka. 

Hello everyone, aur welcome hai aap sabka ek aur episode me of Bazaar & Beyond, jahan hum finance, investing aur market ke world me deep dive karte hain  taaki aap le sakein smart investment decisions. Main hoon aapka host, Vivek Ananth. 

Aaj ke episode me humare guest hain Sandeep Tandon, Founder aur CIO of Quant Group, jo Quant Mutual Fund bhi chalata hai. Unhone apna career shuru kiya tha early 1990s me GIC Mutual Fund ke saath. Unhone ICICI Securities, Kotak Securities, aur Economic Times Research Bureau me bhi kaam kiya hai. 

Thank you, Mr. Tandon, for joining us. Main aapse start karna chahta hoon aapke AMC journey se. Aap lagbhag teen decades se iss industry me hain, early 90s se. Thoda background dijiye  kaise start hua Quant, aur kaise Quant Mutual Fund last kuch saalon me itna popular hua. 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Mainne apni mutual fund journey start ki thi ek summer trainee ke roop me way back in 1993. Bahut log nahi jaante, lekin main GIC Mutual Fund ka part tha, jiska ek JV hua tha George Soros ke saath un dino me. Aaj ke time me George Soros ka naam lena shayad controversial ho, lekin tab wo bahut high-profile naam tha. Usi phase me maine apna career start kiya, aur wahi se mera macro thesis ka base develop hua. Mujhe yaad hai maine unki do books kharidi thi shayad tab maine uska 10% bhi nahi samjha tha… aur honestly, aaj bhi 10% se zyada nahi samjhta! Phir maine IDBI Mutual Fund join kiya as the first employee, aur company ko scratch se build kiya. 
2018 me jab humne Escorts Mutual Fund takeover kiya, toh ek alag hi feeling thi ek time trainee the aur aaj ek fund own kar rahe the. Ye transition kaafi interesting raha  industry grow hoti gayi aur humne uska har phase dekha. Early 90s me log mutual fund space me invest karne se katrate the. Tab ye industry mainly large brokers, prop houses, ultra-HNIs aur family offices ke control me thi. Retail participation naam ki cheez thi hi nahi. UTI-64 aur Morgan Stanley ke fiascos ke baad logon ka trust toot gaya tha. Lekin agar aap last kuch saalon me dekhein, toh retail investors ne finally entry li hai. 

Har bull run ka ek leader hota hai. 2003 ka bull run FIIs ne lead kiya tab humne pehli baar suna tha names like Merrill, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Capital. Phir 2008 ke Lehman crisis ke baad 2009 ka bull run HNIs aur AIFs ne lead kiya. Aur current bull run post-COVID, April 2020 ke baad ye real retail investors ne lead kiya hai. 

Isliye main kehta hoon post-COVID, retail-centric mutual funds ne zabardast growth dekhi hai. Do reasons hain ek, log ghar par the aur unke paas time aur savings dono the. Doosra, pehli baar logon ne market me venture kiya bina zyada lose kiye. Institutions aur wealthy investors COVID se dare hue the, lekin retail ne chance liya. 

Jab rally start hui, toh mark-to-market gains itne bade the ki 15–20% correction bhi unhe disturb nahi karta. Yahan mujhe laga ki mutual fund space me kuch badla hai retail investor is back. Retail base bada hai FIIs ya HNIs se kai guna zyada. Aur India ki young population ke chalte ye bull run long-term chal sakta hai shayad ek do decades tak. Of course, har bull run me correction aur consolidation dono honge, lekin 2047 tak India ki demographic cycle driving seat me rahegi. 

Vivek: 
Aapne retail investors ki baat ki. Common mistakes kya dekhe aapne unme? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Sabse common mistake hai log apna risk appetite aur investment horizon assess nahi kar paate. Bull run me hype hoti hai, extraordinary noise hota hai, aur sabka risk appetite peak pe hota hai. Har koi kehta hai “Main long-term investor hoon.” 
Confidence aur greed dono badh jaate hain. Hum log hamesha bolte hain don’t get carried away. Apna behavior analyze kijiye: 2000 ke dot-com bubble me aapne kya kiya? 2008 ke Lehman crisis, 2018 ke correction, aur 2020 ke COVID crash me aapne kaise react kiya? 

Agar aap ye samajh lein ki aap kitni jaldi panic karte hain, toh aapko pata chalega aap truly long-term investor hain ya nahi. 

Equity market me risk lena padta hai par wo calculated risk hona chahiye. Apna behavior analyze karke hi answers milte hain. Main bhi aisa karta hoon har baar dekhte hain ki humne kya seekha. Market me galtiyon se hi seekha jaata hai bina galti ke koi expert nahi banta. Lekin important ye hai ki galti repeat na ho. Jo apni mistake accept nahi karta, wo market me tikta nahi. 

Market me successful log hamesha flexible rahe hain. Unhone environment ke hisaab se apni approach badli hai. 
Yahan extraordinary degree ki zarurat nahi sirf observation aur adaptability chahiye. Inflection points samajhna seekhiye jab sab dar rahe ho, tab contra call lena seekhiye. Jisme flexibility nahi, wo market me door tak nahi jaa sakta. 

Vivek: 
Aapne intuition ka bhi zikr kiya intuition aur data-driven approach me balance kaise banaate hain? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Dekhiye, humare liye ye sab data ka game hai. Hamari firm philosophy hai “Objectivity is our religion, and Data is God.” 
Jahan subjectivity aati hai, wahaan problem shuru hoti hai. Intuition bhi experience se aata hai. Koi sapna nahi aata ki ye stock lena hai. Aapka intuition aapke experiences, failures aur learnings se banta hai. Agar intuition experience-based hai, to wo valuable hai. Pure gut feeling ka koi value nahi lekin experienced intuition kaam karta hai. 

Vivek: 
Kai log Quant ke schemes me invest karte hain aur short term me result nahi dekhte. Aap unke expectations kaise manage karte hain? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
India me mutual funds ka concept abhi bhi relatively naya hai. Log bolte hain long term me paisa banta hai sahi baat hai. 
Lekin risk appetite har cycle ke top pe highest hota hai. Agar aap peak pe enter karte ho bina risk samjhe, toh takleef hoti hai. 

Hum log investors ko samjhate hain risk-adjusted returns pe focus karo, sirf absolute returns pe nahi. Kai wealth managers bhi ye galti karte hain risk ka factor ignore kar dete hain. Bull markets me sabko outperformance chahiye, lekin risk kya liya gaya wo koi nahi dekhta. Maturity aati hai cycles dekhne ke baad. Jinhone 2–3 cycles dekhi hain, wo panic nahi karte. Lekin jo log post-COVID market me aaye, unhone correction dekha hi nahi. Wo “born in a bull market” generation hain unhe time lagega seekhne me. 

Vivek: 
Toh aaj ka investor class zyada young hai ya middle-aged? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Aaj ke time me mostly middle-aged investors hain around 35 years ke. Thoda post-retirement money bhi aata hai, lekin demographically youth ke favor me hai. Isliye hum apni branding aur education me next generation pe focus karte hain kyunki future unhi ka hai. 

Vivek: 
Agar aap undervalued sectors dhoond rahe hain itne hype ke environment me kaise identify karte hain? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Bahut accha sawal hai. Aaj market me hype bahut hai. Fund managers cash flow se zyada sales multiples dekhne lage hain. 

Dekhiye, early trends tempting hote hain jaise internet 2000 me fail hua par baad me ecommerce bana. Abhi new energy aur semiconductor me hype hai. Log kisi bhi price pe kharidne ko ready hain. 

Hum Quant me VLRT framework use karte hain Valuation Analytics, Liquidity Analytics, Risk Appetite Analytics, aur Timing Analytics. Jab teeno align hote hain, tab hi invest karte hain. 

Aaj bhi undervalued opportunities milti hain bas patience chahiye. Ho sakta hai aap 6 mahine ya 1 saal early ho jao, par opportunity milti hai. 

Aur main maanta hoon next decade Value ka decade hoga.  Value stocks growth se zyada return denge. 

Vivek: 
Retail investors ko kaunse key risks dhyaan me rakhne chahiye? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Pehla Concentration Risk.  Kisi ek stock me 20–30% mat daaliye. 8–10% se zyada exposure avoid kijiye.  Sectoral concentration bhi avoid kijiye  jaise 90% tech ya energy stocks me mat daaliye. Doosra Liquidity Risk. Bull market me liquidity “chhappad phaad ke” aati hai, lekin downturn me buyers gayab ho jaate hain. Low-volume stocks me aapka maal bikta nahi hai. Retail investors ko samajhna chahiye ki liquidity risk real hai. 

Vivek: 
AI har jagah charcha me hai. Aapko lagta hai ye asset management industry ko kaise badlega? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Bahut accha sawal hai. AI aur ML naye shabd hain, lekin hum last 30 saal se predictive analytics use kar rahe hain — ye bhi ek tarah ka AI hi hai.  AI ne data processing ko multiple times fast kar diya hai.  Ab machine intelligent ho gayi hai. Thousands of data points roz badalte hain manually analyze karna impossible hai. Toh AI/ML jaise tools zaruri ho gaye hain. 

World dynamic hai, toh money management static nahi ho sakta. Old philosophy of “buy and hold forever” ab outdated hai. 
Dynamic rebalancing zaruri hai. Humari philosophy hai Being Relevant. Jo time ke saath nahi badlega, wo irrelevant ho jaayega. AI jobs khatam nahi karega efficiency badhayega. Efficient log hamesha survive karte hain. 

Vivek: 
Indian IT ke baare me bhi log bar-bar doubt karte hain, lekin wo fir se comeback karta hai. Aap kya soch rahe hain IT ke liye? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Haan, abhi hum bearish hain IT pe, lekin permanently nahi. Valuations jab normalize karenge, hum wapas lenge. Yahan price fall earnings se nahi, PE multiple erosion se aaya hai. Main hamesha kehta hoon Earnings forecast isn’t everything; multiple forecast bhi equally important hai. Ye hum perception analytics se assess karte hain. 

Vivek: 
Defense, PSU aur infra sectors me hype rehta hai. Sustainable kya lagta hai aapko? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
India me abhi infrastructure capacity hi nahi hai. China 50 saal aage hai, unke paas excess capacity hai. Hume toh abhi build karna hai roads, ports, airports sab mandatory hain growth ke liye. Defense bhi ek long-term play hai, geopolitics ke wajah se demand rahegi. Short-term euphoria ho sakta hai, lekin long-term thesis strong hai  defense, railways, infra sab value themes hain. 

Vivek: SIF (Special Investment Fund) jaise naye products aaye hain  kya retail investors ke liye suitable hain? 

Sandeep Tandon: Sabse pehle, regulator ko thank you kehna chahiye  forward-looking initiative hai. 
SIF me shorting allowed hai  up to 25% naked shorts. 
Log ise hedge fund samajh ke negative lete hain, lekin globally hedge funds absolute return products hote hain — kam risk ke saath. Risk matrix ke hisaab se ye actually safer hai. Main bolunga  50% mutual fund aur 50% SIF me rakhiye. Mutual fund bull market me madad karta hai, aur SIF bear/corrective phase me downside protect karta hai. Aur haan, kabhi-kabhi short karke bhi paisa banana seekhiye. Bull market me jitna paisa aap ek saal me banate hain, utna short karke kuch hafte me kama sakte ho agar sahi khela toh. Combination me dono product rakhne se risk-adjusted returns better milte hain. Aur haan Easy phase of bull run is over ab difficult phase chal raha hai. 

Vivek: 
Risk-adjusted return thoda simple language me samjhaiye. 

Sandeep Tandon: Bahut simple hai. Do schemes hain dono ne 10% return diya. Ek ka beta 1.5 hai, doosre ka 1.2. Toh jiska beta kam hai, usne kam risk leke zyada alpha generate kiya. Wahi better hai. Aapko Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Jensen’s Alpha jaise parameters dekhne chahiye ye batate hain ki return kis level ke risk pe mila. 

Vivek: 
Aur Quant ki investment philosophy ka evolution kaise hua? 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Jaise maine pehle bola  humne galti karke seekha hai. Humara VLRT framework  Valuation, Liquidity, Risk Appetite, aur Timing  isi se evolve hua. Industry me pehle sirf Valuation ko God mana jaata tha. Hum valuation ko sirf one-third weightage dete hain. Baaki weightage Behavioral data aur Liquidity Analytics ko jaata hai. 

Hum kehte hain  Fundamentals are the soul (Atma), Liquidity is the life force (Pran), Sentiment is the illusion (Maya). Teeno equally important hain. Bina liquidity ke idea kaam nahi karta. Bina risk appetite ke paisa invest nahi hota. Ye combination hum stock, sector, asset class aur even countries pe apply karte hain. 

Vivek: 
Bahut shukriya, Mr. Tandon. 

Sandeep Tandon: 
Thank you, Vivek. 

Toh ye tha aaj ka episode of Bazaar & Beyond. Umeed hai aapko pasand aaya hoga. 
Sandeep Tandon ne samjhaya kaise intuition aur data-driven approach ko balance karte hain, aur long-term focus maintain karte hain. Agar aapko ye episode pasand aaya ho, toh video ko like kijiye, doston ke saath share kijiye, 
aur aise hi aur conversations ke liye m.Stock YouTube channel ko subscribe kijiye. Milte hain agle episode me 
tab tak ke liye, stay safe and invest wisely. Investments and securities markets are subject to market risk. Read all related documents carefully before investing.