Union Budget 2025: What to Expect?

Mujhe lagta hai yeh ek realistic target hai.
Mujhe nahi lagta ki budget mein government fiscal consolidation path se deviate karegi.
At the same time, jo pro-growth agenda hai, uspe unki nazar rahegi.

As a portfolio strategy, increase your exposure towards debt and reduce your exposure to equity.
I think debt is the best asset class going into next 2–3 years.
I believe ki chaar sectors hain jo outperform kar sakte hain.

Kaun se stocks budget ke run-up mein focus mein rahenge?

Shiv: Hello everyone, welcome to yet another episode of Bazaar & Beyond jahan hum finance, economy aur investment ke world mein deep dive karte hain to empower you in making informed decisions. Main hoon aapka host Shiv Narayanan.

Shiv: Aaj ka insightful episode ek aise topic par hai that's on top of everyone’s mind right now – the Union Budget 2025. Har saal, Union Budget set karta hai India ki economic priorities, policies aur future trajectory. Yeh ek blueprint hota hai jo industries, markets aur sabse important – crodon Bharatiyon ke rozmarra ki zindagi par impact karta hai.

Shiv: Aur is discussion ke liye humare saath hain Mr. Sanjeev Hota, Head of Research, Mirae Asset – Sharekhan. Sanjeev ji, swagat hai aapka.

Sanjeev: Thank you, and thanks for having me on the show.

Shiv: Aaj duniya mein ho rahe geopolitical tensions aur global headwinds jaise factors ki wajah se, kya Union Budget par koi impact ya influence rahega?

Sanjeev: Bilkul. Global level par kaafi headwinds hain – Trump ka wapas aana, Japan mein rate hikes, China slowdown, aur India mein macro slowdown aur corporate weakness. Is context mein yeh budget aur bhi important ho jata hai.

Shiv: Government capex par aapka kya view hai? FY26 mein kya expectations hain?

Sanjeev: FY25 ek election year tha, isliye actual capex ₹9.55–9.66 lakh crore tak hi ho paya. Par FY26 mein Government ₹11.5 lakh crore ka target le sakti hai. Agar wo spend hota hai, to economy aur earnings recovery ke liye positive hoga.

Shiv: Fiscal stance ko lekar aap kya expect karte hain?

Sanjeev: Mujhe nahi lagta Government fiscal consolidation se deviate karegi. 2014 ke baad se fiscal discipline mein bahut sudhar aaya hai. Budget mein growth aur prudence ke beech balance banake rakha jayega.

Shiv: FY25 fiscal deficit target 4.9% hai – kya yeh achievable hai?

Sanjeev: Haan, capex underspending aur strong income tax collection ke chalte yeh target kaafi achievable hai.

Shiv: FY26 ka fiscal deficit projection kya ho sakta hai?

Sanjeev: Target already set hai – 4.5%. Corporate earnings improve hone se, tax collections better honge, aur target achieve ho sakta hai.

Shiv: Kya Government fiscal expansion karegi ya 4.5% maintain karegi?

Sanjeev: Mujhe lagta hai 4.5% maintain karne ki koshish rahegi, kyunki fiscal credibility bahut important hai.

Shiv: Budget 2025 mein kaunse sectors focus mein rahenge?

Sanjeev: Infra, roads, railways, defence. MSME/SME ke liye credit enhancement. Employment generation aur 'Make in India' ke liye bhi push expected hai.

Shiv: Employment aur consumption ke liye kya measures ho sakte hain?

Sanjeev: Employment ke liye – textiles, infra, housing sectors mein incentives. Consumption ke liye – income tax relief ya housing loan deduction limit badhne ki umeed hai.

Shiv: Tax reforms ki baat karein to kya major announcements possible hain?

Sanjeev: Capital gains tax par clarity, income tax brackets mein relief, aur Direct Tax Code par simplified compliance expected hai. Major structural reforms unlikely hain.

Shiv: Equity market outlook kya hai? Portfolio strategy kya honi chahiye?

Sanjeev: Market volatile rahega. Strategy – large caps mein exposure badhayein, mid/small caps mein rebalance karein. Risk-reward large caps ke favour mein hai.

Shiv: Sector-wise aapki preferences kya hain?

Sanjeev: IT, Pharma, FMCG, Banking – yeh sectors underperform kar chuke hain aur valuations reasonable hain.

Shiv: Budget ke run-up mein kaunse stocks focus mein rahenge?

Sanjeev:

• Infra: Larsen & Toubro
• New energy: NTPC, NTPC Green, Tata Power
• FMCG: (if consumption boost happens)
• Defence: HAL, Bharat Electronics
• Real estate: DLF, Macrotech, Sunteck
• Banking: SBI, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, PNB Housing, LIC Housing
• Infra finance: REC, PFC
• Public digital infra: Bharti Airtel, Route Mobile

Shiv: Thank you Sanjeev ji for this enriching discussion. Aapne budget ke har critical aspect ko simplify kar diya.

Sanjeev: Thank you. It was my pleasure.

Shiv: Doston, agar aapko yeh episode pasand aaya ho toh zaroor share karein, podcast ko subscribe karein, aur apna feedback dein. Hum milenge agle episode mein ek naye expert aur naye topic ke saath.

Take care and happy investing!