Will Indian stock markets remain volatile in 2025? m.Stock Podcast with Manish Jain

Forex reserve — you have to keep a very close eye. Volatility badh sakti hai aur market mein ek achha correction dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Aise situations mein 15 to 20% tak cash portfolio mein rakhna chahiye. Thoda patience rakhen, market mein bane rahein — returns aate rahenge.

IT sector ko ek preferred sector maankar chal sakte hain. Market unsettle ho sakta hai agar koi naya geopolitical event aa jaye. Try to understand the nature of the correction — yehi mantra hona chahiye aage ke liye.

2025 ek aisa saal hoga jahan aapko multi-strategy adopt karni padegi.

Hello everyone! Welcome to the very first episode of our new podcast series Bazaar & Beyond — jahan hum aapko investments, market trends aur financial decisions ke baare mein valuable insights denge. Main hoon aapka host Shiv Narayanan, aur main bahut excited hoon is journey ko aap sabke saath kick off karne ke liye.

Aaj hum baat karenge ek bahut important topic par — Market Outlook for 2025. Jahan investors ke liye naye opportunities ho sakti hain, wahi kuch challenges bhi aa sakte hain.

Toh samajhna zaroori hai ki 2025 mein market kaisa ho sakta hai, aur aapko kya expectations rakhni chahiye.

Iss discussion ke liye aaj hamare saath hain ek industry expert, jo market trends aur predictions ko gehraai se samajhte hain. He is a seasoned professional with years of experience in investment strategy, and he has worked with both individual investors and large institutions.

Please welcome Mr. Manish Jain — Chief Strategy Officer & Director, Institutional Business at Mirae Asset Capital Markets.

Sir, bahut shukriya aapka aane ke liye.
Manish: Shiv, thank you very much mujhe yahaan bulane ke liye. I’m sure yeh discussion kaafi interesting aur mazedaar hone wala hai.

Shiv: Bilkul sir! Toh aaj hum jaanenge 2025 mein market kis tarah perform kar sakta hai, kaunse sectors mein growth dekhne ko milegi, aur investors ko apni investment strategy kaise adopt karni chahiye.

Toh chaliye bina kisi deri ke shuru karte hain.

Sabse pehle baat karte hain India GDP growth ki. Even after recent slowdown, India duniya ki top 10 economies mein se fastest growing big economy hai. Ye ek proud moment toh hai hi — but prominent sawaal ye hai ki aisa kaise possible hua? Kaunse key factors ne Indian economy ko itna resilient banaya?

India GDP growth in Q2 FY25 thi 5.4%, jo ki one of the lowest thi. And frankly, it slowed down a bit. But despite that, duniya ke comparison mein humne highest growth rate achieve kiya — frankly better than the top 10.

Comparators forecast kar rahe hain ki FY25-26 mein hum 6.7% growth rate se grow karenge.

Toh kaunse factors hain jo humein resilient banaye rakhte hain — aur jo 2025 mein bhi humein support karenge?

Ek key factor hoga services GDP momentum, jo 2025 mein wapas aa sakta hai. Yahaan par RBI ka bhi ek role ho sakta hai. Agle 6 months mein expectation hai ki RBI 50–75 basis points ka rate cut kare — jisse overall consumption ko boost milega.

Private aur public sector dono mein thoda investment badh sakta hai, aur in wajah se 2025 mein Indian economy phir se track pe aa sakti hai.

Shiv: Wah sir, yeh kaafi insightful tha. Ab agar hum FPI outflows ki baat karein, toh aapke kehne se mujhe yaad aata hai ki generally investors uss waqt kaafi panic ho gaye the. Aapke hisaab se investors ko aise waqt pe kya strategy follow karni chahiye, aur kya koi specific approach hai jo foreign investment fluctuations ke impact se bachne mein madad kar sakti hai?

Manish: Shiv, agar hum overall FPI outflow ki baat karein toh calendar year 24 mein total outflow tha about 3.6 billion dollars. Aur DII inflow ki baat karein toh DII inflow tha around 83 billion dollars. So, net-net agar dekhein toh yeh ek issue nahi hai, net inflow hi raha hai.

Ab yahaan par do scenarios ban sakte hain. Jab FPI ne paisa redeem kiya, toh kya woh Indian banking system mein rakhenge ya phir bahar chale jayenge? Dekhiye, agar yeh paisa Indian banking system mein rakha jata hai, toh koi problem nahi hai, yeh deploy ho sakta hai.

Lekin challenge tab hota hai jab yeh paisa banking system ke bahar chala jata hai. Aur is point par humare USD/INR par pressure aata hai, aur rupee depreciate ho jata hai.

Shiv: Samajh gaya! Toh agar hum volatility ki baat karein, toh volatility ko samajhna zaroori hai. Long term ke liye humne suna hai ki ek Yuan carry trade ho sakta hai. Aap iske baare mein kya soch rahe hain?

Manish: Yeh bahut bade factors hote hain jo market structure mein significant changes laate hain. Agar hum carry trade ki baat karein, toh aise factors tab bante hain jab disinflation hoti hai, currency weak ho rahi hoti hai, aur economy slow down ho rahi hoti hai.

Aise scenarios mein emerging markets ki currencies aur inflation ko manage karna kaafi zaroori ho jata hai. Agar emerging markets apni currency aur inflation ko achhe se manage nahi karte, toh FPI outflows ho jate hain aur yeh paisa developed markets, jaise US, mein chala jata hai.

Shiv: Toh, humein apni portfolio strategy mein 15 to 20 percent cash allocation rakhna chahiye, right?

Manish: Bilkul. Agar aise situations hoti hain toh apni approach ko adjust karte hue 15 to 20 percent cash rakhna zaroori hota hai. Jab volatility increase hoti hai aur correction aa jaata hai, tab cash ko deploy karna sabse smart option hota hai.

Shiv: Wah, sir! Yeh strategy samajhni zaroori hai, especially jab market mein volatility ho.

Manish: Haan, ab market stabilise ho raha hai, lekin jab tak thoda aur time na ho, thoda patience rakhna padega. 2024 se 2025-26 mein jo investors hain, unhe lag sakta hai ki yeh ek long journey hai. Lekin yeh nahi hai — thoda patience rakhne par returns aate rahenge.

Shiv: Exactly! Jaise Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ji ne kaha tha, "Markets are like the weather, you may not like it but you have to bear it."

Manish: Bilkul, aur hum sabko yeh cheez samajhni padti hai ki market correction ke samay kabhi bhi short-term mein aapko bahut mushkil ho sakta hai, lekin agar aap long-term view rakhte hain, toh yeh ek opportunity ho sakti hai.

Shiv: Wah, sir! Yeh sab insights kaafi useful hain. Ab agar hum global market policies ki baat karein, jaise ki US policies aur trade tariffs, jo ki IT aur defense sectors ke liye kaafi important hain, aapko kya lagta hai in policies ka India ke liye short-term aur long-term impact kaisa ho sakta hai?

Manish: Shiv, agar hum IT sector ki baat karein, toh pichle saal yeh kaafi accha perform kiya hai. Mera yeh maan na hai ki calendar year 2025 mein bhi IT sector ko ek preferred sector ke roop mein dekha jaa sakta hai. Iska reason yeh hai ki Trump policies ke expected impact ke chalte USD strong rahega, aur isse USD/INR depreciation ho sakti hai. Jab USD/INR depreciate hota hai, toh IT sector ko benefit milta hai.

Second, DG Office, jahan Elon Musk bhi hain, wahaan bhi AI aur digitalization ko boost mil sakta hai. Agar aisa hota hai, toh IT sector ko fayda ho sakta hai.

Shiv: Samajh gaya, sir! Ab agar hum defense sector ki baat karein, toh India ka target hai ki USD 25 billion ke defense production goals achieve karein. Aapko kya lagta hai ki US policies ka is sector par kaisa effect ho sakta hai, short-term aur long-term perspective mein?

Manish: Agar defense sector ki baat karein, toh India ek ambitious production target set kar raha hai USD 25 billion ka. US policies, aur American military procurement sectors ko support kar rahe hain. Iska long-term mein benefit India ko ho sakta hai. Defense sector mein kaafi opportunities hain, aur agar market mein dips aate hain, toh hum is sector ko add kar sakte hain.

Shiv: Wah, yeh insights kaafi helpful hain. Ab ek important question hai — kya yeh FPI selling aur volatile times investors ke liye ek challenge banenge ya fir ek opportunity create karenge?

Manish: FPI selling aur volatile times ne market mein sentiment ko kaafi impact kiya hai. Domestic investors ka buying interest strong hai, lekin uske baavajood, market mein upside abhi tak nahi aa paya. Agar FPI selling kam ho jati hai, toh market ko ek trigger mil sakta hai upward movement ke liye.

Shiv: Samajh gaya! Toh geopolitical risks bhi kaafi headlines mein hain, jaise oil prices aur global conflicts ka impact. Aapke experience ke hisaab se, kaunse major geopolitical risks hain jo 2025 mein Indian markets ko disrupt kar sakte hain, aur investors ko kis tarah se prepare karna chahiye?

Manish: Mujhe lagta hai ki jab Trump back aayenge, toh geopolitical conflicts kam honge. Yeh baat market mein already factor ho chuki hai. Recent developments bhi yeh suggest kar rahe hain ki thoda stability aane wali hai. Agar koi naye geopolitical events hote hain, toh market unsettled ho sakta hai, lekin agar hum overall dekhein, toh market ko koi fresh trigger milne ki sambhavna kam hai.

Shiv: Bilkul, yeh samajhna zaroori hai ki market mein fluctuations ho sakte hain, lekin agar hum apni strategy ko sahi tarike se implement karein, toh hum in risks se efficiently handle kar sakte hain.

Manish: Bilkul, aur yeh cheez sabko samajhni zaroori hai ki market mein corrections kabhi bhi ho sakti hain. In corrections ko samajhkar hi apne portfolio ko adjust karna chahiye. Hamesha apne portfolio mein cash allocation ko rakhna zaroori hai, jab market mein volatility ho.

Shiv: Aapki baat sach hai! Market ke changes ko samajhna aur uske hisaab se portfolio ko adjust karna sabse smart strategy hai.

Manish: Ji haan, 2025 ek aisa year ho sakta hai jab aapko multi-asset strategy ko apnaana pade. So, equity, bonds aur gold ko mix karke apne portfolio ko diversify karna chahiye.

Shiv: Wow, sir! Yeh kaafi helpful advice hai. Toh aapke final thoughts kya hain investors ke liye jo market mein volatility ke beech apne investments smartly manage karna chahte hain?

Manish: Mera yeh kehna hai ki market corrections ke samay sabse pehle yeh samajhna zaroori hai ki correction kis wajah se ho rahi hai. Agar yeh short-term correction hai, toh investors ko thoda patience rakhna chahiye aur long-term view apnaana chahiye. Portfolio ko diversify karna aur cash ko bhi apne portfolio ka ek hissa rakhna zaroori hai.

Shiv: Absolutely! Sir, yeh discussion bohot insightful tha. Aapka bahut bahut shukriya apna time aur expertise humare listeners ke saath share karne ke liye.

Manish: Thank you, Shiv!
Manish: Thanks for having me, Shiv! 

 Yeh conversation bohot interesting rahi, aur main sure hoon ki listeners ko bhi yeh kaafi helpful laga hoga.

Shiv: Toh doston, agar aapko aaj ka episode pasand aaya ho, toh humare podcast ko subscribe karna na bhoolein aur is episode ko apne doston ke saath zaroor share karein.

Aur humare saath bane rahiye, kyunki hum har episode mein naye topics aur perspectives laate hain, jo aapke investing journey ko aur interesting banayenge.

Shiv: Tab tak ke liye yaad rakhein — apne investment decisions soch samajh kar lein, apne goals ko smartly plan karein, aur apne future ko financially express karein.

Take care and happy investing.